The 101st annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society starts January 9th, 2021, featuring many presentations related to the Unified Forecast System (UFS). Talks, posters, and town halls representing UFS Community members’ works and from the UFS-R2O Project describe new hurricane, marine, coastal, and coupled models, verification and validation approaches, physics parameterizations, and forecast products. Here are some highlights.
The first UFS-related event in the AMS meeting promoted by UFS Community members is the NOAA Modeling Forum scheduled on Monday, January 11th, at 1PM ET. At the last few AMS Annual meetings, the NOAA Modeling Forum has been held as a place to socialize operational environmental model development and receive community input. This year’s Forum will focus on progress being made with creating a UFS system for community model development, general research and NOAA’s operational production suite. Whereas the actual format and speakers will be determined closer to the Annual Meeting dates, here are some expected topics: Progress toward a UFS made this year, UFS partnerships programs, including the UFS-R2O project and the NOAA-NCAR Memorandum of Agreement, and NOAA’s community modeling efforts and the UFS.
A second Town Hall will be hosted on Thursday, January 14th, at 1pm ET. The Town Hall will present NOAA’s Unified Forecast System Research to Operations Project (UFS-R2O), launched by the National Weather Service and Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. The project focuses on developing the next generation coupled Global Forecast system (GFS v17))/Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS v13) and the regional Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS), both targeting operational implementation in FY24.The Project is part of the larger UFS community, and includes scientists from NOAA Labs and Centers, NCAR, UCAR, NRL and several Universities. We will present the plans and objectives of the 10 sub-projects contributing to the forecast system developments. We will discuss project strategies to engage the broader research community on the one hand, and the NWS Centers and field offices on the other, in order to align forecast model developments to forecast requirements. We will invite audience feedback and provide information on how to become involved with the UFS R2O Project, as a researcher or as a field officer.
UFS Community members will speak at the following oral presentations:
Monday, January 11th
- Development of the National Global JEDI-based Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Aerosol Forecasts, by Bo Huang, at 8:35 AM EST.
- The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP): A Shared Infrastructure for Model Physics for Operations and Research, by Dom Heinzeller, at 10:10 AM EST.
- Process-Oriented Model Diagnostics for Extended-Range Forecasts, by Zhuo Wang, at 10:20 AM EST.
- Improving Community Involvement in UFS Land Model Development through Hierarchical Testing: A Case Study with Noah-MP, by Michael Barlage, at 10:25 AM EST.
- Development of Global Aerosol Forecast Model (GEFS-Aerosols) into NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS), by Li Zhang, at 10:30 AM EST.
- Case Studies that Exemplify Known Biases of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Weather Model, by Xia Sun, at 10:40 AM EST.
- Development of Fully Coupled UFS-Based Seasonal-to-Seasonal Prototypes, by Avichal Mehra, at 10:45 AM EST.
- Predictability of Extreme Events in UFS at Subseasonal Time Scales, by Cristiana Stan, at 10:50 AM EST.
- Estimating Direct Effect of Aerosol on Subseasonal Prediction using FV3 with Inline Chemistry Model, by Shan Sun, at 10:55 AM EST.
- Accelerating the UFS Implementation through the Integrated and Collaborative UFS R2O Project, by Dorothy Koch, at 1:10 PM EST.
- Overview of the Unified Forecast System Short-Range Weather (SRW) Application Release, by Jamie Wolff, at 1:15 PM EST.
- Testing and Evaluation in Defining Evidence-Based Gateways for UFS R2O Transitions, by Deepthi Achuthavarier, at 1:20 PM EST.
- The Unified Forecast System Research to Operations (UFS R2O) Project: A New Way of Coordinated and Collaborative Model Development for Research to Operations, by Vijay Tallapragada, at 1:25 PM EST.
- Transitioning the NWS Operational Production Suite to the Community-Based Unified Forecast System, by Brian Gross, at 1:30 PM EST.
- Leveraging Unified Forecasting System (UFS) Research to Operations: Accelerating Improvements in Hurricane and Disaster Appropriation Supplementals, by Segayle Thompson, at 1:40 PM EST.
- Design, Implementation, and Evaluation of a SAR-FV3-Based Ensemble Forecasting System Targeting the RRFS and Run for the 2020 HMT FFaIR Experiment by Tim Supinie, at 1:05 PM EST.
- Using Model-Based Lake Surface Conditions in the Unified Forecasting System to Improve Lake-Effect Snowfall Forecasts over the Laurentian Great Lakes Region, by David Wright, at 4:00 PM EST.
- Why has the Global Net Cloud Radiative Effect Not Changed in the Last Two Decades? By Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, at 4:00 PM EST.
- The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Real-Time Experiments (HREx): Evaluating the Tropical Cyclone Forecasts to Advance UFS and Improve Operations, by Ghassan Alaka Jr., at 4:05 PM EST.
Tuesday, January 12th
- Session 4B: Physics Development and Process-based Testing and Evaluation for Weather and Climate Models: Part 1, at 10:30 AM EST.
- Evaluating Model Physics in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) in the Medium-Range Weather Application, by Michelle Harrold, at 10:40 AM EST.
- Evaluating Model Physics in the Unified Forecast System (UFS): An Exercise of Using the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) Single-Column Model under the Hierarchical Testing Framework, by Dan D’Amico, at 10:45 AM EST.
- Investigation of Land-Atmosphere Interactions in the Unified Forecast System Short Range Weather (UFS-SRW) Application, by Kathryn Newman, at 10:55 AM EST.
- Evaluating Hydrometeor Type and Mount in the Unified Forecast System, by Evan Kalina, at 11:05 AM EST.
- SAR FV3-Based Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts and Ensemble Consensus Products for the 2019/20 HMT Winter Weather Experiments, by Keith Brewster, at 11:05 EST.
- Investigating the Scalability of Convective and Microphysics Parameterizations in the Unified Forecast System Short-Range Weather (UFS-SRW) Application, Michelle Harrold, at 11:20 AM EST.
- Accelerating the UFS Implementation through the Integrated and Collaborative UFS R20 project, by Stylianos Flampouris, at 1:10 PM EST.
- Developing a Space Weather Verification System Using METplus, by Tara Jensen, at 1:30 PM EST.
- The NCEP FV3 Whole Atmospheric Modeling (WAM) for UFS Space Weather Applications, by Hann-Ming Juang, at 1:35 PM EST.
- Verifying GFS Short-Range-Forecast Vertical Thermodynamic Profiles Using an Objective Profile-Shape Classification Method, by Dillon Blount and Clark Evans, at 1:40 PM EST.
- An Overview of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Version 12 Official Evaluation, by Geoffrey S. Manikin, at 4:10 PM EST.
- The NES Data Assimilation Strategy within the Unified Forecast System, by Stylianos Flampouris, at 4:15 PM EST.
- Vertically Extended Scale-Dependent Covariance Localization in Hybrid 4DEnVar for NCEP FV3-Based GFS, by Xuguang Wang, at 4:25 PM EST.
Wednesday, January 13th
- Coastal Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to Support Storm Surge Inundation Modeling, by Christopher Amante, at 2:00-3:30 PM EST, poster.
- Wind analysis for a land falling storm in the coastal region with NCEP’s URMA system, by Roshan Shrestha, at 2:00 PM-3:30 PM EST, poster.
- Transitioning Models into Operations in NOAA; using the UFS for Short-term Forecasts, by Hendrik Tolman, at 3:45 PM EST.
- Implementation of Mesosphere-Thermosphere Physics into the FV3 Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) for UFS Space-Weather Applications, by Sajal Kar, at 4:00 PM EST.
- Benchmarking and Retirement – Making Room for the UFS Rapid Refresh Forecast System, by Jamie Wolff, at 4:20 PM EST.
Thursday, January 14th
- Update from NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (Invited Presentation), by Ivanka Stajner, at 10:40 AM EST.
- Simultaneous Multiscale Data Assimilation in Hybrid EnVar to Improve Convective Scale Weather Prediction, by Xuguang Wang, at 10:55 AM EST.
- Prototype UFS-Based Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) on the Cloud, by Christina Holt, at 11:05 AM EST.
- NOAA’s Path to Earth System Prediction using the Unified Forecast System, by Dorothy Koch, at 1:10 PM EST, Keynote talk.
- NCEP’s Great Lakes Wave Prediction System: An Incubator for Accelerating the Transition of Innovations to Operations, by Jose-Henrique Alves, at 1:40 PM EST.
- Exploit High-Performance Cloud Computing to Broaden the Development Community for the Unified Forecast System, by Keven Blackman, at 1:50 PM EST.
- Overview of Current Skill and Planned Updates to the National Weather Service (NWS) National Air Quality Forecast Capability, by Youngsun Jung, at 1:55 PM EST.
- Diagnosing Hurricane Track Errors in the UFS Short-Range Weather Application (SRW), by Nicholas Lybarger, at 2:00-3:30 PM EST, poster.
- Development Roadmap of the UFS-based Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: A Progress Report, by Xuejin Zhang, at 2:00-3:30 PM EST, poster.
- Implementing and Assessing the HWRF Physics Suite in NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, by Man Zhang, at 2:00-3:30 PM EST, poster.
- On the Development and Evaluation of NWS Global Forecast Systems Version 16, by Fanglin Yang, at 4:15 PM EST.
- Advancements in METplus Verification and Diagnostic Capability for Short-Term Forecast Evaluation, by Tara Jensen, at 4:20 PM EST.
- Effective Additive Inflation Based on Convective-Scale Static Background-Error Covariance to Improve Storm-Scale Ensemble Data Assimilation, by Xuguang Wang, at 4:25 PM EST.
- 2020 Real-Time Forecasts from the Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFSV0.1B), by Andrew Hazelton, at 4:30 PM EST.
- Overview of Regional Modeling Development at NOAA/GSL, by Curtis Alexander, at 4:40 PM EST.
- Impact of Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation Frequency within the Operational Hybrid EnVar System on Convection-Allowing Forecasts over the Continental United States, by Yue Yang, at 4:45 PM EST.
- Subseasonal Predictions in the NCEP/EMC Coupled Modeling System (UFS S2S), by Lydia Stefanova, at 4:45 PM EST.
- Status of NOAA’s Next Generation Convection-Allowing Ensemble: The Rapid Refresh Forecast System, by Jacob Carley, at 4:45 PM EST.
- Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP): Development of the Next-Generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)within the Unified Forecast System, by Youngsun Jung, at 4:50 PM EST.
- The use of the Common Community Physics Package in the Unified Forecast System, by Ligia Bernardet, at 4:50 PM EST.
- Model Infrastructure Development for the UFS Coupled Model, by Jun Wang, at 4:50 PM EST.
- Streamlining Candidate Model Evaluation through a Unified Verification, Validation, and Diagnostics Framework—METplus, by Tara Jensen, at 4:55 PM EST.
Friday, January 15th
- Toward a Continental-Scale Convective-Allowing UFS Model Initialized with GOES-R Lightning Data, by Amanda Back, at 10:10 AM EST.
- Fostering National and International Collaboration through a Unified Verification, Validation, and Diagnostics Framework—METplus, by Tara Jensen, at 10:20 AM EST.
- NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12 Reforecast Dataset and Applications to Hydrology (Keynote Presentation), by Thomas M. Hamill, at 10:25 AM EST.
- The Role of the Coastal Ocean in Tropical Cyclone Evolution: HWRF-B Case Studies, by Lewis Gramer, at 2:00-3:30 PM EST, poster.
- The NOAA COASTAL Act Program, by Nicole Kurkowski, at 1:10 PM EST.
- The COASTAL Act Wind and Water Event Database (CWWED), by Stephen Del Greco, at 1:15 PM EST.
- NOAA’s Coastal Act: Parcel-Scale Wind Downscaling Modeling and Validation for 2018’s Hurricane Florence, by Anil Kumar, at 1:20 PM EST.
- High-Resolution Hurricane Hindcasts with a Coupled WAVEWATCH III and ADCIRC Model, by Andre van der Westhuysen, at 1:25 PM EST.
- Advances in the Unstructured WAVEWATCH III and Nearshore Physics, by Ali Abdolali, at 1:30 PM EST.
- Resolving Compound Inland-Coastal Flooding Events by Incorporating Precipitation and Inland Hydrology in the Coupled ADCIRC Model System: Implementation and Validation, by Kendra M. Dresback, at 1:35 PM EST.